预计在阿拉伯半岛干旱的增加和相关的不确定性
Md Saquib Saharwardi1,2, Hari Prasad Dasari1,2, Waqar Ul Hassan1
1Physical Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Scientific reports
|January 11, 2025
概括
气候模型预测阿拉伯半岛的干旱情况将恶化,原因是潜在蒸发转化率 (PET) 的上升超过了降水量. 标准化降水蒸发指数 (SPEI) 比标准化降水指数 (SPI) 更好地反映了未来的干旱状况.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 阿拉伯半岛 (AP) 面临越来越多的干旱频率.
- 全球气候模型 (GCM) 对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估CMIP6 GCM用于AP的历史干旱模拟和未来预测.
- 评估不同模型,场景,时间尺度和方法的干旱预测中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 使用了标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水-蒸发指数 (SPEI).
- 评估气候模型相互比较项目6 (CMIP6) 全球气候模型 (GCM).
- 使用哈格里夫斯的方法来计算潜在的蒸发透气 (PET).
主要成果:
- 大多数CMIP6 GCM都难以准确地复制历史降水情况,这影响了SPI预测.
- CMIP6 GCM在捕获增加的潜在蒸发转化 (PET) 方面表现更好,改善了SPEI预测.
- 在所有情景中,预计PET的增加是降水增加的五倍.
- SPEI表明未来干旱的升级,特别是在SSP585和SSP370情景下.
结论:
- 干旱条件预计将在整个AP恶化,无论模型和场景的不确定性如何.
- SPEI 是一个比SPI更可靠的未来干旱趋势的指标.
- 在气候模型中更好地表示AP降水,对于准确的干旱预测和适应规划至关重要.
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