关于净零气候目标的不确定性对温室气体排放预测产生重大影响
Michel G J den Elzen1,2, Ioannis Dafnomilis1, Leonardo Nascimento3,4
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|January 12, 2025
概括
净零目标的不确定性大大扩大了2050年全球温室气体 (GHG) 排放预测. 诸如天然气覆盖面和社会经济基线等因素创造了比以前估计的更广泛的范围.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- 100多个国家已承诺实现净零目标以缓解全球变暖.
- 现有研究经常简化净零假设,忽视关键的不确定性.
- 这些不确定性包括气体,部门的范围,以及碳汇和去除的作用.
研究的目的:
- 分析各种不确定性因素对主要排放国预计2050年温室气体 (GHG) 排放的影响.
- 评估这些不确定性对全球温室气体排放的总体影响.
- 将排放范围与综合评估模型中的排放范围进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析净零目标不确定性 (天然气覆盖,部门覆盖,水槽,提取).
- 包括社会经济基线不确定性.
- 模拟主要排放国家和2050年全球预计的温室气体排放量.
主要成果:
- 到2050年全球排放预测范围在23至40千兆二氧化碳当量 (GtCO2eq) 之间,比综合评估模型 (30-45%) 报告的范围 (40-75%的2015年水平) 广得多.
- 净零目标和社会经济基线的天然气覆盖的不确定性是这种分歧的关键驱动因素.
- 那些2050年净零目标的国家的排放范围更窄,而那些2050年以后的目标和不清楚范围的国家 (例如中国,印度,印度尼西亚) 的排放范围更广.
结论:
- 净零目标不确定性大大扩大了未来温室气体排放预测.
- 准确的评估需要考虑各种因素,如天然气覆盖面和社会经济趋势.
- 政策明确性和明确的范围对于缩小排放不确定性至关重要,特别是对于远程目标的主要排放国.
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