了解沙特阿拉伯的中风负担:从1990年到2019年的趋势,并通过时间序列分析预测
Ahmed A Mahfouz1, Shaimaa A Abdelmoneim1, Shymaa M M Abdu1
1From the Department of Family and Community Medicine (Mahfouz, Ghazy), College of Medicine, King Khalid University, Abha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from Alexandria Directorate of Health Affairs (Abdelmoneim), Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population, Alexandria, Department of Public Health and Community Medicine (Abdu), Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura University, Mansoura, from Public Health and Community Medicine (AboElela, Shiba), Faculty of Medicine for Girls, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Neuroscience Center (Alhazzani), King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
沙特阿拉伯的中风发病率正在上升,特别是在女性和老年人中. 积极的健康策略对于管理未来十年中不断增加的中风负担至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 神经学 神经学
背景情况:
- 脑卒中在全球和沙特阿拉伯王国 (KSA) 是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解中风发生率和负担的长期趋势和未来预测对于有效的医疗保健规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990-2019年在KSA的缺血性中风 (IS),脑内出血 (ICH) 和脑下出血 (SAH) 的年龄标准化发病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
- 通过使用全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据,从2020年到2030年预测这些中风指标.
主要方法:
- 使用波桑回归来评估发病率和DALY率的变化.
- 采用时间序列模型,包括自行回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 和指数式光滑状态空间 (ETS),用于预测中风趋势.
主要成果:
- 在过去的三十年中,观察到年龄标准化中风发病率的持续增加,而2015年ICH和SAH的小幅下降.
- 预测显示,所有三种类型的中风发病率持续上升,SAH的DALYs下降,而IS和ICH DALYs增长缓慢.
- 中风的发病率在妇女和老年人群中显著更高.
结论:
- 沙特阿拉伯的中风发病率在过去30年中呈现出显著的上升趋势,预计将持续到2030年.
- 增加的中风负担,特别是在弱势人口群体中,迫切需要实施积极的公共卫生战略和有针对性的医疗干预措施.
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