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评估和应用热带气旋集群在南中国海的应用

Yan Yan^1,2, Nergui Nanding^3,4, Xiaomeng Li^5,6

¹College of Ocean and Meteorology & South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, 524088, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China. yany519@outlook.com.

Scientific reports

|January 12, 2025

概括

K-means集群精确地分类了来自南中国海的热带气旋 (TC) 轨迹. 该方法揭示了受厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 影响的独特TC类型,有助于灾害风险评估.

科学领域:

气象学和气候学
地理空间数据分析.
灾害风险管理灾害风险管理

背景情况:

热带气旋 (TC) 轨迹的准确分类对于灾害风险评估和减轻至关重要.
来自南中国海 (1949-2023) 的历史TC轨道数据为了解区域气旋行为的基础.

研究的目的:

评估和比较K-means,Fuzzy C-Means和自组织地图用于集群TC轨道的有效性.
识别不同的TC轨道类型及其特征.
调查厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 对TC活动模式的影响.

主要方法:

聚类算法:K-means,Fuzzy C-Means和自组织地图被应用到历史的TC轨道数据.
数据分析涉及评估聚类性能和描述已识别的TC轨道类型.
使用统计分析来检查TC活动和ENSO阶段之间的关系.

主要成果:

与模糊的C-Means和自组织地图相比,K-means方法在分类TC轨道方面表现优越.
确定了四个不同的TC轨道集群,每一个都在寿命,风速,频率,功率消耗指数和降雨模式方面表现出独特的特征.
在拉尼娜年期间,TC活动的频率较高,而在厄尔尼诺年活动减少,这表明ENSO的影响很大.

结论:

K-means集群是分类南中国海热带气旋轨迹的有效方法.
识别的TC集群具有受到ENSO影响的独特特征,为区域灾害准备提供了宝贵的见解.
了解这些模式可以提高预测和应对热带气旋影响的能力.

关键词:

集群分析就是对集群进行分析.降水量降水量降水量南中国海是南中国海.热带气旋是一个热带气旋.

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