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构建和比较基于机器学习的风险预测模型,用于绝经前妇女主要不良心血管事件
Anjing Chen1, Xinyue Chang2, Xueling Bian1
1College of Nursing, Binzhou Medical University, Shandong, 256600, People's Republic of China.
International journal of general medicine
|January 13, 2025
概括
随机森林模型有效预测绝经前妇女的主要不良心血管事件 (MACE),有助于早期风险识别. 这项研究比较了三种MACE预测算法在这个人口.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
- 妇女健康 妇女健康
背景情况:
- 绝经前期包括卵巢功能和雌激素的下降,增加心血管疾病的风险.
- 主要不良心血管事件 (MACE) 包括心力衰竭和心肌梗塞.
- 了解绝经前妇女的MACE风险因素对于预防策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响绝经前妇女MACE发生的因素.
- 使用三个不同的算法开发和比较MACE风险的预测模型.
- 评估机器学习和物流回归模型的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 411名患有MACE的绝经前妇女被随机分配到训练 (70%) 和测试 (30%) 组.
- 随机森林 (RF),逆向传播神经网络 (BPNN) 和物流回归 (LR) 被用来构建MACE预测模型.
- 用准确度,灵敏度,特异性和AUC来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 射频模型实现了0.948的AUC,BPNN的AUC为0.921,LR的AUC为0.866.
- 与LR模型相比,RF模型的预测性能明显优于LR模型 (P=0.023).
- 分析了26个候选变量,以确定它们的预测价值.
结论:
- 随机森林模型在预更年期妇女中预测MACE风险方面表现强.
- 这种模型可以帮助早期识别高风险个体.
- 这些发现支持开发有针对性的干预措施,以减轻MACE在这个人群中的影响.
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