通过预测建模来量化可持续的城市化,以改善农业管理:南亚地区的一个案例研究
Kashif Ali1,2, Jawad Ali Shah1,2, Saif Ullah1,2
1Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Heliyon
|January 13, 2025
概括
巴基斯坦萨希瓦尔的农业用地正在被城市化迅速消耗. 未来的预测显示,城市扩张仍在继续,强调需要积极地规划土地利用,以管理增长和保护农田.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 全球人口增长和城市化对农业用地资源构成重大威胁.
- 不受控制的城市扩张需要积极的规划,以减轻对土地利用的负面影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析2002-2022年间巴基斯坦旁遮普省萨希瓦尔地区的土地利用和土地覆盖面 (LULC) 变化.
- 使用细胞自动机 (CA) -马尔科夫模型预测未来的LULC场景.
- 评估城市化对农田的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用遥感 (RS) 和地理信息系统 (GIS) 分析LULC分类地图.
- 应用Idrisi的细胞自动机 (CA) -马尔科夫模型来预测未来的LULC场景.
- 对于城市和农业类的土地面积变化的定量评估.
主要成果:
- 萨希瓦尔的城市化面积在2002年至2022年间增加了91% (234.7平方公里).
- 同期农业用地减少了52% (656.05平方公里).
- 根据CA-Markov的预测,到2042年,农业用地将进一步减少226.09平方公里,城市面积将扩大到450.23平方公里.
结论:
- 迅速和无计划的城市扩张是巴基斯坦萨希瓦尔的一个显著趋势.
- 有效的土地利用管理和全面的总体规划对于控制城市扩张和保护农田至关重要.
- 使用RS和GIS进行定量分析为可持续城市发展提供了宝贵的见解.
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