时间序列疾病预测的混合神经网络模型面临着时空依赖
Hamed Bin Furkan1, Nabila Ayman2, Md Jamal Uddin1,3
1Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
MethodsX
|January 13, 2025
概括
萨里马-LSTM模型有效预测流感疫情,在时空预测方面表现优于其他混合神经网络. 它在跟踪季节性趋势和尽量减少预测错误方面表现出卓越的准确性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 已建立的传染病模型经常与复杂的时空动力学作斗争.
- 准确预测流感疫情对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估和比较四个混合神经网络模型在预测流感疫情中的性能.
- 解决在传染病爆发预测中的时空挑战建模方面的差距.
主要方法:
- 利用来自八个国家的时间序列数据来评估在空间困难下模型的性能.
- 雇员月对月数据结构化用于分析.
- 使用平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 进行模型预测的比较.
主要成果:
- 在8个国家中,SARIMA-LSTM模型获得了最低的RMSE平均得分 (66.93) 和最低的RMSE得分.
- 该GA-ConvLSTM-CNN模型排名第二,平均RMSE为68.46.
- 在实际的流感数据中,SARIMA-LSTM表现出了很强的跟踪季节性趋势的能力.
结论:
- 与其他评估的模型相比,SARIMA-LSTM模型在流感疫情预测中的时空挑战方面更强大.
- 该研究提出SARIMA-LSTM作为时空传染病建模的优越方法.
- 研究结果强调了在疫情预测模型中考虑时空因素的重要性.
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