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在美国分类推动龙卷风风暴和相关空间趋势的synoptic模式.
Qin Jiang1, Daniel T Dawson Ii1, Funing Li2
1Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN USA.
概括
气候变化对美国东南地区的龙卷风频率的影响不同,由于强烈的光学模式,美国东南地区看到更多的龙卷风,而大平原地区由于强迫力较弱而经历的龙卷风较少.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 强烈的对流风暴和龙卷风是危险的天气现象,造成重大破坏和死亡.
- 了解大规模的综合图案对近地天气的影响,对于预测龙卷风潜力至关重要.
- 调查多尺度关联对于理解气候变化背景下的龙卷风活动至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 识别和区分与不同美国地理区域的龙卷风风暴相关的领先的综合模式.
- 分析龙卷风频率的空间趋势,并将其与特定的视觉模式联系起来.
- 通过检查物理机制的区域差异来解释风发生的观察到的变化.
主要方法:
- 采用聚类分析来识别驱动龙卷风风暴的不同突出模式.
- 检查上层的动能和Z500场,以描述同视力强迫.
- 对龙卷风频率趋势的区域分析及其与已识别的同视模式的相关性.
主要成果:
- 驱动龙卷风风暴的主要综合模式在美国各地在地理上是可以区分的.
- 美国东南地区的龙卷风趋势越来越强,与强烈的同视力强迫 (高的动能,密集的Z500场) 有关,导致每次龙卷风事件的数量越来越多.
- 中部大平原的某些地区表现出与较弱的上层突触强迫相关的龙卷风减少趋势.
结论:
- 截然不同的区域内视图模式解释了美国龙卷风发生率的观察变化.
- 强烈的同视力强迫导致东南地区龙卷风频率增加.
- 减弱的突触强迫与大平原部分地区龙卷风活动的减少有关,这表明区域性不同的物理机制.
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