基于马尔科夫过程在地铁团队内的动态错误通信的量化方法
Pei Wang1, Wang Jie1, Zhou Jie-Qiong1
1School of Management and Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.
International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics : JOSE
|January 13, 2025
概括
这项研究使用马尔科夫过程来模拟地铁团队的沟通,以计算错误沟通的可能性. 与传统方法相比,动态双向通信显著减少了错误,验证了新模型.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 系统工程 系统工程
- 人类因素分析分析
背景情况:
- 有效的沟通对于地铁团队的运作至关重要.
- 现有的人类错误预测模型可能无法完全捕捉动态通信细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 用认知心理学原则分析地铁团队沟通.
- 开发一种新型模型来计算地铁团队中错误通信的概率.
- 为了验证模型在现实世界的场景中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 地铁团队沟通的定性分析.
- 马尔科夫过程理论应用于模拟通信流程.
- 一个动态的,双向通信误传概率模型的推导.
- 使用屏幕门故障事件验证案例研究.
主要成果:
- 地铁团队的沟通与马尔科夫过程特征保持一致.
- 衍生模型准确计算动态错误通信概率.
- 拟议的模型显示错误通信的概率明显低于THERP手册.
- 动态的双向通信有效地减少了错误的沟通.
结论:
- 开发的基于马尔科夫的模型对于评估地铁团队的错误沟通是可行的和有效的.
- 动态双向通信策略通过尽量减少错误来提高运营安全.
- 这项研究提供了一种定量方法,以了解和改善关键基础设施中的团队沟通.
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