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Cause and Effect01:53

Cause and Effect

10.9K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
2.2K
Confirmation Biases01:31

Confirmation Biases

5.4K
The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?
5.4K
The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

5.9K
A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
5.9K
Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

6.3K
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 2, 2025

Assessment of Mouse Judgment Bias through an Olfactory Digging Task
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Assessment of Mouse Judgment Bias through an Olfactory Digging Task

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与判断冲突的预测: 低绝对概率效应.

Chengyao Sun1, Robyn A LeBoeuf1

  • 1Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis.

Journal of experimental psychology. General
|January 13, 2025
PubMed
概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

人们往往无法预测最有可能的结果. 这种预测断开发生是因为绝对的可能性影响了选择,导致当最有可能发生的事件不太可能发生时,导致不太合逻辑的策略.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 决策研究 决策研究

背景情况:

  • 人们通常认为预测与概率判断一致.
  • 现有的研究往往忽视了绝对概率对预测的影响.

研究的目的:

  • 调查概率判断与实际预测之间的脱节.
  • 确定影响这种预测-概率差距的因素.

主要方法:

  • 实验性研究向参与者展示各种结果场景.
  • 操纵潜在事件的绝对和相对概率.
  • 分析预测选择与陈述的信念.

主要成果:

  • 有一个显著的断开存在:人们往往不能预测最可能的结果.
  • 最可能发生的事件的绝对概率低导致任意预测策略.
  • 专注于相对概率可以减少预测-概率差距.
  • 对他人的预测比自我预测更少的脱节.

结论:

  • 预测可以系统地偏离概率判断.
  • 绝对概率在预测形成中起着至关重要的作用.
  • 了解这种脱节对于研究判断,预测和不确定性至关重要.