最近 ENSO 对夏季环球远程连接和中度极端影响的变化
Shankai Tang1,2, Shaobo Qiao3,4, Bin Wang5
1School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China.
Nature communications
|January 14, 2025
概括
自20世纪70年代以来,北极夏季环球远程连接已经向西移动,加剧了极端天气. 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 的变化是影响气候可预测性的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 电信连接模式 电信连接模式
背景情况:
- 在北半球中度的气候可预测性方面,北极夏季环球远程连接 (CGT) 是至关重要的.
- CGT影响气候异常和极端天气事件.
研究的目的:
- 调查CGT流通结构最近向西转移的情况.
- 确定厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 在这种CGT转变中的作用.
- 了解对中度极端事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 对气候数据的实证分析.
- 气候建模模拟.气候建模模拟.
- 关于ENSO与印度夏季季风降雨 (ISMR) 相互作用的调查.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪70年代末以来,CGT流通结构向西移动了半个波长.
- 这种转变加剧了东欧,东亚和北美西南部的热浪和干旱.
- 自20世纪80年代以来,ENSO-ISMR链接被削弱,ENSO通过罗斯比波直接迫使CGT向西转移.
结论:
- 观察到的CGT转变主要是由自然的变化驱动的,而不是人为的强迫.
- 改变ENSO行为对于理解和预测中度极端事件至关重要.
- 改进季节性预测需要考虑不断变化的ENSO对CGT的影响.
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