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一项多模型研究,为美国2035年NDC提供信息
Gokul Iyer1, Alicia Zhao2, Adriana Bryant2
1Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. giyer@umd.edu.
Nature communications
|January 14, 2025
概括
实施扩大美国政策可以在2035年之前实现56%至67%的减排,大大促进实现"巴黎协定"目标的进展. 目前的政策不足,突出了雄心勃勃的气候行动的必要性.
科学领域:
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
- 能源系统建模 能源系统建模
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 各国将在2025年提交新的国家自主贡献 (NDC),这对与巴黎协定保持一致至关重要.
- 美国2035年NDC雄心壮志对于影响全球气候行动至关重要.
- 目前的美国政策不足以实现长期的气候目标.
研究的目的:
- 模拟扩大美国联邦和州政策的潜力,以实现雄心勃勃的2035年减排目标.
- 评估这些政策对可再生能源和交通等关键部门的影响.
- 为制定可信且具有影响力的美国气候承诺提供决策框架.
主要方法:
- 美国四个建模团队之间的合作.
- 情景分析将当前政策与一系列联邦和州政策进行比较.
- 经济范围内的建模,以预测减排和部门影响.
主要成果:
- 扩大政策可能导致到2035年,经济范围内的排放量减少56-67%,低于2005年的水平.
- 目前的政策预计只有34-44%的减少,这表明存在很大的差距.
- 潜在的政策意味着可再生产能增加2至4倍,化石燃料电力未减产减少73至100%,电动汽车在新销售中的份额增加83至100%.
结论:
- 美国的扩大政策方法可以大大缩小实现"巴黎协定"目标的差距.
- 建模表明,雄心勃勃但可信的2035气候目标是可以实现的.
- 该研究提供了一个使用建模为未来气候政策决策和国际承诺提供信息的框架.
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