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人口老龄化对生活质量和疾病负担的影响:基于人口的研究
Jun-Yan Xi1,2,3, Bo-Heng Liang4, Wang-Jian Zhang1,2,3
1Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, 74Th Zhongshan 2Nd Rd, Yuexiu District, Guangdong, 510080, China.
Global health research and policy
|January 14, 2025
概括
人口老龄化显著影响健康,老年人死亡率导致预期寿命增加,但老年人残疾阻碍生活质量. 到2030年,将疾病负担减少15%以上至关重要,以抵消衰老的影响.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 流行病学和生物统计学
- 卫生经济学和政策
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是一个日益严重的全球问题,需要清楚地了解其对人口健康的影响.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏一种系统的方法,以将健康变化特别归因于衰老过程.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个系统的归因框架,以全面评估人口老龄化对健康的影响.
- 量化老龄化对生活质量和疾病负担变化的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用健康调整预期寿命 (HALE) 和残疾调整预期寿命 (DALY) 来衡量广州的人口健康状况.
- 在HALE和DALY预测中使用贝叶斯的年龄周期队列模型和人口预测模型.
- 在HALE和DALY中分解变化,以在三个不同的未来情景下隔离人口老龄化的影响.
主要成果:
- 在2010-2020年期间,60岁以上的死亡率显著增加,而残疾影响产生了负面影响.
- 年龄结构的变化是增加DALY的主要驱动因素,男性占70%以上,女性占46%.
- 2020-2030年的预测表明,老年人死亡率对HALE的持续积极影响,但由于年龄结构的变化,DALY也大幅增加.
结论:
- 老年人口中的残疾阻碍了生活质量的改善,年龄结构的变化是导致疾病负担增加的主要原因.
- 为了抵消人口老龄化对健康的负面影响,到2030年减少超过15%的疾病负担至关重要.
- 开发的归因框架有效地评估和比较了老龄化对生活质量和疾病负担的健康影响,随着时间的推移和不同地区.
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