不同机器学习模型的比较,用于预测非转移性结肠直肠癌的长期总生存率
Fahriye Tugba Kos1, Songul Cecen Kaynak2, Selin Aktürk Esen1
1Department of Medical Oncology, Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara, TUR.
Cureus
|January 15, 2025
概括
机器学习模型准确地预测了非转移性结直肠癌 (CRC) 患者的生存率. 这些模型显示了在不同阶段预测短期和长期结果的潜力.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 机器学习 (ML) 越来越多地被用于癌症研究.
- 预测患者存活率对于非转移性结直肠癌 (CRC) 管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种ML模型在预测非转移性CRC患者的整体存活率和时间特定存活率方面的有效性.
- 为了比较不同的ML算法对生存预测的性能.
主要方法:
- 来自498名非转移性CRC患者的临床病理和治疗数据的回顾性审查,随访时间超过10年.
- 卡普兰-梅尔计算生存率的方法.
- 开发和比较五种不同的ML算法,用于预测1,2,3,5年和10年的生存时间点.
主要成果:
- 决策树模型实现了最高的AUC (0.89) 一年生存预测.
- 组合和支向量机器模型显示,预测2,3,5年和10年生存的AUC很高.
- 所有模型都在预测不同阶段的生存时表现出类似的准确性 (约为70%或更高).
结论:
- ML模型是预测非转移性CRC患者短期和长期生存的有效工具.
- 这些预测能力扩展到基于癌症阶段的分层分析.
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