随机森林和逐步回归的比较用于使用低患病率预测器进行变量选择:儿童败血症的案例研究
Patricia Gilholm1, Paula Lister2,3,4, Adam Irwin5,6
1Children's Intensive Care Research Program, Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia. p.gilholm@uq.edu.au.
Maternal and child health journal
|January 15, 2025
概括
随机森林和逐步回归在临床预测模型中都有效地选择变量,即使是低患病率的变量. 这两种方法在儿童败血症查工具研究中都显示出可比的预测性能.
科学领域:
- 临床信息学 临床信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 变量选择对于确定临床数据中的预测因素至关重要.
- 低患病率预测因子 (LPPs) 是常见的,但在变量选择中未得到充分研究.
- 这项研究涉及LPPs在儿科败血症查工具.
研究的目的:
- 比较随机森林 (RF) 和逐步回归 (SWR) 的变量选择.
- 评估LPP对模型性能的影响.
- 评估具有不同流行率值的预测因素选择.
主要方法:
- 将射频与前向和后向SWR进行比较,用于变量选择.
- 利用了儿科败血症查数据集与众多LPPs.
- 通过曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和保留的变量评估模型性能.
- 进行了对预测因素流行影响的模拟研究.
主要成果:
- 射频保留了22个预测因素 (14个LPP),SWR保留了17个 (10个LPP).
- 这两种模型的预测性能相似 (RF AUC:0.79,SWR AUC:0.80).
- 模拟显示了不同变量的重要性和选择,两种方法的流行率值都在增加.
结论:
- 射频选择的LPP多于SWR,但预测性能是可比的.
- 当正确应用时,RF和SWR都适合与LPP进行变量选择.
- 模型性能强大,即使在小候选预测器集中存在大量的LPP.
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