在中美竞争中,亚太国家对冲效应的时空空间演变:来自大规模事件数据的见解
Qiyue Hu1, Lihua Yuan1, Bin Liu2
1Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
PloS one
|January 15, 2025
概括
亚太国家利用对冲策略来应对中美竞争. 各国被动态评估,揭示了与中国,美国或在它们之间摆动的趋势,影响了区域稳定.
科学领域:
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 地缘政治地缘政治地缘政治
背景情况:
- 在中美战略竞争中,亚太国家采用了对冲策略,以减轻风险和维护国家利益.
- 这些对冲策略的实施效应缺乏全面的理论评估框架和经验研究.
- 这种策略可以显著影响国家间关系,并可能导致该地区的政治不稳定.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的理论框架来评估对冲策略的实施效应.
- 自2000年以来,动态量化亚太国家对中国和美国采取的对冲策略的影响.
- 分析不断变化的地缘政治关系,并为外交政策的改进提供见解.
主要方法:
- 开发一个新的四象限评估理论框架.
- 构建一个地缘政治关系指数和一个比较关系指数.
- 利用全球事件,语言和音调数据库 (GDELT) 进行24年的动态量化,用于19个亚太国家.
主要成果:
- 自2000年以来,亚太国家的地缘政治表现分为三个类别:更接近中国,更接近美国,或波动.
- 与中国保持一致的国家已经加深了联系,特别是在"一带一路"倡议实施后.
- 与美国保持一致的国家加强了他们的关系,在不同美国总统任期 (从奥巴马到拜登) 中观察到一致的模式.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对亚太国家对中国和美国的外交战略的动态评估.
- 调查结果为监测和完善外交政策提供了有价值的见解,以应对地缘政治变化.
- 拟议的框架和指数允许在竞争激烈的地缘政治环境中持续评估对冲策略的有效性.
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