一个预测模型,用于高级食道癌,涉及食道下三分之一的食道
Jing Dong1, Ye Jin2, Zhi Zhang1
1Department of Oncology, Affiliated Tangshan Gongren Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China.
Translational cancer research
|January 16, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测晚期下第三食道癌 (aLEC) 患者的生存率. 化疗显著改善了T1NanyM1 aLEC阶段患者的生存率,突出了其在治疗中的重要性.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 食道癌 (EC) 是全球普遍存在且危及生命的恶性瘤.
- 先进的下三分之一食道癌 (aLEC) 对治疗和生存预测提出了独特的挑战.
- 患有aLEC的患者经常失去进行激进手术的机会,需要使用替代的预后工具.
研究的目的:
- 确定患有晚期下第三食道癌 (aLEC) 的患者生存的独立预后因素.
- 开发和验证一个名谱,以准确,个性化预测aLEC患者的存活率.
- 评估化疗和放射治疗对aLEC不同阶段的生存结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2010-2015) 来获取患者数据.
- 采用单变量和多变量考克斯回归分析来确定显著的生存预测指标.
- 使用接收器运行特征 (ROC) 曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 构建和验证了一个预测名ogram.
主要成果:
- 组织学类型,T阶段和化疗被确定为LEC生存的独立预后因素.
- 开发的名图表在预测存活率方面表现良好,与T1.1相比,T2/T3阶段的存活率更高.
- 化疗显著改善了T1NanyM1 aLEC阶段的预后,而放射治疗没有显著的益处.
结论:
- 结合关键临床病理因素的强有力的预后名录有助于预测aLEC患者的存活率.
- 化疗是一种关键的干预措施,可以改善T1NanyM1阶段的晚期下第三食道癌患者的生存结果.
- 这些发现强调了基于预后因素和阶段的个性化治疗策略的重要性.
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