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事件土壤湿度-温度合的变化可以加剧非常极端的热量超出预期
Douglas Maraun1, Reinhard Schiemann2, Albert Ossó3
1Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria. douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at.
Nature communications
|January 17, 2025
概括
非常极端的热浪可能会随着全球变暖而加剧或减弱,与温和的热浪不同. 这一发现,可以在本世纪中叶发现,影响了气候风险评估和极端天气事件的适应计划.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 全球变暖 全球变暖
背景情况:
- 传统的气候研究往往侧重于中度极端天气事件与高回归频率.
- 非常极端的热浪,有几个世纪的回归周期,在气候变化研究中得到了较少的关注.
研究的目的:
- 调查是否非常极端的热量事件与中度极端事件相比,对全球变暖的反应不同.
- 评估极端热浪中变暖信号的潜在放大或减弱.
主要方法:
- 利用来自地球系统模型的三大集合来分析气候预测.
- 研究了中度地区中热事件期间土壤湿度和温度之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 非常极端的热量事件的变暖信号可以相对于中度极端相对显著放大或减弱.
- 这种调节在21世纪中叶的气候预测中是可见的.
- 热量事件期间土壤湿度-温度合的变化,受当前土壤湿度和预计降水的影响,解释了中度地区的这种现象.
结论:
- 非常极端的热量事件与全球变暖并非均地加剧;它们的反应可能会显著变化.
- 这些发现突出了影响热浪强度的复杂相互作用,并为气候风险评估和适应战略提供了关键的见解.
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