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在结合的社会气候模型中传播气候否定谣言:对全球平均温度的影响
Athira Satheesh Kumar1,2, Chris T Bauch1, Madhur Anand2
1Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
PloS one
|January 17, 2025
概括
气候变化谣言影响个人态度和二氧化碳排放. 较大的群体有效地传播气候变化信息,导致与个人行动相比显著的温度降低.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 个人的态度显著影响气候变化缓解或加剧.
- 了解社会动力学,如谣言传播,如何影响气候变化的感知至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一个社会气候模型,将谣言动态与地球系统建模结合起来.
- 调查气候变化谣言对个人意见和随后的减缓行为的影响.
主要方法:
- 将异质网络中的谣言动态模型与简单的地球系统模型结合起来.
- 模拟个人对全球温度变化和谣言暴露的反应.
- 分析谣言传播参数和群体结构对温度异常的影响.
主要成果:
- 全球气温上升导致个人拒绝气候变化谣言.
- 拒绝谣言的人限制二氧化碳排放,影响全球温度.
- 较大的群体在通过传闻传播来降低温度方面比较小的群体更有效.
- 拒绝谣言者的缓解行为具有很大的影响力;它们的缺席可以使全球温度提高0.5°C.
结论:
- 基于小组的谣言传播在控制温度变化方面比个人传播更有效.
- 社交网络结构和谣言动态在减缓气候变化的努力中发挥着关键作用.
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