从1990年到2045年的细菌性皮肤疾病的全球负担:基于全球疾病负担数据的分析
Jiaxu Gu1, Jiaming Wang2, Yannan Li3
1Department of Dermatology, Shenzhen Key Discipline of Dermatology, Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Translational Medicine of Dermatology, Biomedical Research Institute, Institute of Dermatology, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen Peking University-The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Medical Center, Peking University, Shenzhen, China.
Archives of dermatological research
|January 17, 2025
概括
全球细菌性皮肤病发病率正在上升,预计到2045年将达到12亿例. 有针对性的预防和治疗策略对于解决这种日益严重的公共卫生问题至关重要.
科学领域:
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 细菌性皮肤病对全球健康构成重大负担,但缺乏全面的评估和预测.
- 了解趋势对于评估医疗保健政策和为未来战略提供信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析细菌性皮肤疾病的全球负担和趋势.
- 预测到2045年这些疾病的未来负担.
主要方法:
- 使用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据进行横截面分析.
- 连接点回归 (年平均百分比变化) 用于趋势量化.
- 贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型用于未来负担预测.
主要成果:
- 全球发病率从每10万人口中的8,988.74增加到10,823.88 (AAPC0.62%),在SDI低的地区和35岁以下的个人中发病率最高.
- 根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALY) 率从每10万人口的20.82增加到25.45 (AAPC -0.11%),在高SDI地区和85岁以上的个人中增幅最大.
- 人口增长和流行病学变化是增加发病率的关键驱动因素;人口增长和老龄化推动了DALY的增加. 预计到2045年,发生病例将达到12亿.
结论:
- 细菌性皮肤病的发病率在全球显著增加,需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 各地区和各年龄组疾病负担的差异需要量身定制的公共卫生方法.
- 预计的增加突显了迫切需要进行研究和制定政策,以减轻全球负担.
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