气候变化下的Anthonomus eugenii的全球潜在地理分布:基于整体建模方法的全面分析
Peilin Wang1,2, Ming Yang2, Haoxiang Zhao2
1College of Plant Protection, Southwest Univ, Chongqing, China.
Neotropical entomology
|January 17, 2025
概括
气候变暖正在扩大入侵性胡虫 (Anthonomus eugenii) 的潜在地理分布. 这种害虫可能会入侵俄罗斯和中国等新地区,需要加强监测和隔离工作.
科学领域:
- 生态学和环境科学生态学和环境科学
- 侵入性物种研究研究 侵入性物种研究
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 气候变暖对入侵性昆虫害虫的范围和种群动态产生重大影响.
- 胡虫 (Anthonomus eugenii) 是美国和墨西哥的主要入侵性害虫,其在气候变化下的全球分布在很大程度上是未知的.
- 了解潜在的地理分布 (PGD) 对于有效的害虫监测和控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候变化场景下预测Anthonomus eugenii的全球PGD.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键环境变量.
- 评估新地区潜在的入侵风险.
主要方法:
- 通过使用全球分布数据和环境变量,开发了一个整体模型 (EM).
- 该模型预测了PGD在当前气候和三个共享社会经济路径下 (SSPs:1-2.6,2-4.5,5-8.5) 在2030年代和2050年代.
- 使用真实技能统计 (TSS) 和曲线下的面积 (AUC) 验证了模型可靠性.
主要成果:
- 整体模型显示了高可靠性 (TSS=0.825,AUC=0.988).
- 关键的环境驱动因素包括最干燥/最湿季度的平均温度 (bio9,bio8) 和最冷季度的降水 (bio19).
- 目前的PGD集中在北美南部和南美中部; 预计合适的地区将大幅扩大,特别是在SSP5-8.5下,分布中心向极移动.
结论:
- 预计Anthonomus eugenii的合适息地将随着气候变化而大幅增加.
- 在包括俄罗斯,中国,刚果共和国和罗马尼亚在内的地区确定了潜在的入侵风险.
- 强化隔离和早期预警系统被推用于这些脆弱地区,以减轻经济和生物多样性的影响.
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