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检测英格兰东南部森林火灾风险上升的情况
Vikki Thompson1,2, Dann Mitchell1, Nathanael Melia3,4
1School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK.
概括
英格兰东南部的创纪录的热浪正在增加野火风险. 分析显示,自20世纪60年代以来,风险较高的火灾天气日数越来越多,需要采取气候变化缓解战略,以应对日益增长的野火威胁.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 2022年7月,英格兰东南部面临着创纪录的热浪和城市野火.
- 以前的研究还没有完全量化该地区的长期火灾天气趋势.
研究的目的:
- 调查自1960年以来英格兰东南部的历史火灾天气趋势.
- 评估温度极端和野火风险之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 利用了大量初始化的气候模型.
- 分析了20世纪60年代至2010年代的每日火灾天气数据.
- 在高,非常高,中和低火灾风险天的比例中量化变化.
主要成果:
- 每年最大的每日火灾天气在20世纪60年代到2010年代之间显著增加.
- 炎症风险高和非常高的夏日日的频率有所增加.
- 虽然2022年热浪期间野火风险升高,但没有达到创纪录的水平.
结论:
- 气候变化明显增加了英格兰东南部的野火风险.
- 观察到的火灾天气增加的趋势迫切需要采取缓解和适应措施.
- 未来的气候预测表明,野火潜在的持续增加.
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