冠状病毒的爆发需要疫情灾难保险:来自中国的证据
Yinghui Wang1, Jianping Li1,2, Xiaoqian Zhu1,2
1School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
概括
流行病灾难保险可以有效地管理来自流行病的财务风险. 一个定量模型表明,中国的保险基金可以覆盖轻度到严重的流行病损失,再保险可以减轻极端事件的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 金融风险管理 金融风险管理
- 保险研究 保险研究
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行凸显了政府面临的灾难性财务压力.
- 现有的关于疫情灾难保险的研究主要是定性的.
- 需要采用定量方法来评估疫情灾难保险的可行性.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估流行病灾难保险的可保险性.
- 提出一种衡量保险基金和估计流行病损失的方法.
- 评估将再保险纳入流行病灾难保险的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种用于流行病灾难保险的新型定量方法.
- 测量了随着时间的推移潜在的保险基金增长.
- 使用中国公共数据估计的流行病引起的损失.
- 综合再保险分析以评估风险转移的有效性.
主要成果:
- 中国的疫情灾难保险基金预计将在5年内达到500亿元,在10年内超过120亿元.
- 该基金表现出有能力弥补轻度和重度流行病造成的损失.
- 对于极端流行病事件,再保险模型表明有效的风险转移以合理的成本.
结论:
- 流行病灾难保险是减轻流行病财务影响的可行和有效工具.
- 拟议的定量方法为评估此类保险计划提供了可靠的框架.
- 建议国际采用流行病灾难保险,以提高政府应对能力.
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