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使用场景分析和模糊决策方法对低影响发展的综合性好处评估
Ting Ni1,2, Xiaohong Zhang2, Peng Leng3
1Business School, Sichuan University, 610059, Chengdu, China.
Scientific reports
|January 17, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的模糊方法来评估低影响发展 (LID) 的好处,将环境,经济和社会因素整合起来,以便在社区层面进行强有力的规划. 结果突出了具体的LID策略,以有效地减轻洪水和减少排水.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 使用传统的多标准决策方法来评估低影响发展 (LID) 的好处,由于混合数据源的不确定性而受到挑战.
- 这可能导致不准确的结果,并影响不同LID策略的排名.
- 需要一个强大的框架来全面评估LID在社区层面的好处.
研究的目的:
- 开发和提出一个多指标模糊的综合效益评估方法,用于选择有效的LID措施.
- 提供一个强大的和整体的框架来评估LID在社区层面的好处,解决决策中的不确定性.
- 为地方决策者确定实际的LID实施优先事项.
主要方法:
- 综合数量 (环境,经济) 和质量 (社会) 指标.
- 使用风暴水管理模型 (SWMM) 和ArcGIS进行基于场景的分析.
- 利用犹不决的模糊语言集和以类似于理想解决方案的优先顺序 (TOPSIS) 技术在不确定性下进行决策.
- 整合了犹不决的模糊加权平均算法和多回报期情景 (5,10,20,50,100年) 以提高稳定性.
主要成果:
- 在各种降雨情景下,评估了成龙路分区的26个LID配置.
- 确定LID措施,特别是沉没的绿地和透性铺路,显著减少排水和峰值流量.
- 在多个回归期内,选定的LID策略的洪水缓解能力得到了改进.
- 结果显示了当地决策者的实际实施优先事项.
结论:
- 提出的犹不决的模糊综合性评估方法为选择LID措施提供了一个强大的框架.
- 集成SWMM,ArcGIS和模糊决策方法有效地处理好处评估中的不确定性.
- 选定的LID配置,特别是绿色空间和透性铺路,对于城市洪水减缓和流水管理有效.
- 该研究为可持续的城市水资源管理和政策制定提供了宝贵的见解.
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