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进口废纸的高估风险:基于灰色区间的多标准决策在不确定性下

Dejin Liu¹, Zeyi Chen¹, Shulin Xiang²

¹The Key Lab of Pollution Control and Ecosystem Restoration in Industry Clusters, Ministry of Education, School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Centre, Guangzhou 510006, PR China.

Journal of hazardous materials

|January 18, 2025

概括

中国对进口废纸 (IWP) 的禁令可能是不合理的. 综合风险评估显示,IWP可以降低非纸的风险,挑战政策的环境基础.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
风险评估风险评估
工业生态学工业生态学

背景情况:

中国在2021年禁止进口废纸 (IWP),理由是环境问题.
之前的风险评估忽视了生产过程中的实际污染物,如重金属和二氧化.

研究的目的:

综合评估使用IWP与在回收纸生产中使用家用废纸的风险.
通过一种新的综合决策方法来优先考虑风险.

主要方法:

开发了ITOPSIS-IVIKOR-GRA,结合了灰色距离,灰色群体实用性和个人遗憾.
评估了四种典型的回收纸类型的潜在和实际健康和生态风险.
使用最小偏差和风险系数优化标准权重.

主要成果:

使用IWP增加了除纸的风险 (较低的白度),但降低了非除纸的风险 (更高的纤维质量).
实际的非致癌和致癌风险被确定为最关键的因素.
综合风险评估质疑中国IWP禁令的合理性.

结论:

综合风险评估强调了政策的不合理性.
建议包括建立标准化回收系统,加强废纸管理监督.

关键词:

生态风险生态风险危害人类健康的风险蒙特卡洛模拟的蒙特卡洛模拟采用多个标准的决策.废纸禁令废纸禁令废纸禁令

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