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洪水预测下的决策:沿海房地产风险感知研究
Avidesh Seenath1, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo2, Matthew Blackett3
1Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
概括
沿海洪水预测显著影响英国房地产决策,将需求转移到更安全的地点. 然而,人们忽视了洪水预测的不确定性,强调需要更好地沟通洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 洪水模型对于风险管理至关重要,但具有固有的不确定性.
- 越来越多的在线洪水地图的可用性给房地产市场带来了风险.
- 房地产价值和租决定受洪水预测数据的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估沿海洪水预测对英国房地产决策的影响.
- 了解房地产买家和租户如何应对洪水风险信息.
- 评估洪水预测不确定性在房地产选择中的作用.
主要方法:
- 这是一个跨学科的方法,结合了洪水建模和地理空间分析.
- 新的实验性支付意愿房地产调查.
- 英国居民对洪水预报的反应的统计建模.
主要成果:
- 获得多个洪水预测来源的权限在房地产决策中超过了美学偏好.
- 观察到需求明显转向洪水风险较高的地区.
- 个人在房地产决策中没有考虑到洪水预测的不确定性.
结论:
- 对洪水模型预测及其不确定性的有效沟通对于减轻房地产风险至关重要.
- 解决公众对洪水风险不确定性的看法至关重要.
- 虽然改善洪水模型很重要,但对于非专家来说,明确的沟通策略至关重要.
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