基于减少碳排放的北京城市轨道交通对环境影响的定量研究
Cai Jia1,2, Xudong Wang1,2, Chengyang Qian3
1School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Huajin Campus, South 189 Jiuhua Rd, Wuhu, 241002, China.
Scientific reports
|January 18, 2025
概括
城市铁路交通大大减少了交通拥堵和碳排放. 用公共汽车或出租车取代它大大增加了北京的旅行时间和污染.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市铁路运输对于减少交通拥堵和碳排放至关重要.
- 城市铁路运输对拥堵和排放的确切影响的量化仍在争论中.
- 评估转换运输方式对环境和拥堵的影响对于可持续的城市发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化城市铁路运输对北京交通拥堵和碳排放的影响.
- 分析在高峰时段用公共汽车和出租车取代城市铁路运输的后果.
- 评估城市铁路运输在缓解城市环境和交通挑战方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 分析北京上午和晚上高峰时段的乘客流量数据.
- 基于实际的交通运营数据开发出交通拥堵预测模型.
- 在各种运输场景下,应用自下而上的方法来估计碳排放.
主要成果:
- 用公共汽车取代城市铁路运输可以使交通拥堵增加37-92分钟 (早上) 和46-59分钟 (晚上).
- 这种替代导致碳排放量激增24-82% (早晨) 和27-56% (晚上).
- 转向出租车将使北京的交通网络,碳排放量增加289-556% (早上) 和333-614% (晚上).
结论:
- 城市铁路运输在制交通拥堵方面表现出相当大的有效性.
- 城市铁路运输对环境的好处是显著的,特别是减少碳排放.
- 维持和扩大城市铁路运输对于可持续的城市流动和环境保护至关重要.
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