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生态风险评估和响应预测是由于云南省中部地区的LUCC引起的
Yongdong Zhang1,2,3, Zisheng Yang2,3, Renyi Yang4,5,6
1School of Economics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming, 650221, China.
Scientific reports
|January 18, 2025
概括
城市化驱动的土地利用变化对生态安全产生了重大影响. 这项研究模拟了云南省中部未来的土地使用情况,揭示了生态风险的减少和生态系统服务之间的协同相互作用,并提出了减缓政策建议.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 快速的城市化和不合理的土地使用严重威胁到生态安全.
- 现有的对土地使用/土地覆盖变化 (LUCC) 生态风险 (ER) 的评估需要加强.
- 中央云南省 (CYP) 由于土地使用动态,面临着重大的生态挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在CYP中使用PLUS模型模拟未来的土地使用/土地覆盖 (LULC) 场景.
- 从2000年到2020年评估生态系统服务 (ES) 和生态风险 (ER),并对未来20年进行预测.
- 分析与LUCC相关的ER的权衡,协同效应和驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型用于LULC模拟.
- 生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估 (InVEST) 模型用于ES的评估.
- 皮尔森相关性,地理加权回归 (GWR) 和地理探测器方法 (GDM) 用于风险分析.
主要成果:
- 在过去二十年中观察到CYP的显著LULC变化.
- 确定了ES的空间异质性和ER的显著空间变化.
- 预计未来的ER将减少,高风险地区将集中在建筑用地上.
- 跨不同生态系统服务类型的ER主要表现出协同作用的关系.
- 生态风险受到自然,社会经济和距离因素的复杂相互作用的影响.
结论:
- 在CYP中的LUCC导致了显著的生态风险,但未来的趋势表明下降.
- 生态系统服务相关的 ER 之间的协同作用会产生连锁效应.
- 提出了政策建议,以减轻该地区未来的生态风险.
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