2050年中国的电力结构考虑储能和需求响应在高可再生能源透率下
Zhong Wang1, Yue Wang1, Ying Liu1
1College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 61000, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 19, 2025
概括
储能和需求响应对于整合可再生能源至关重要. 这项研究表明,到2050年,它们可以在中国显著降低成本,减少排放和减排,支持风能和光伏主导的电力系统.
科学领域:
- 电力系统工程 电力系统工程
- 整合可再生能源的整合
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 间歇性的可再生能源需要电网灵活性,以保持稳定的电力系统.
- 储能和需求响应是管理可再生能源整合的关键解决方案.
- 中国的目标是到2050年实现高可再生能源透率,这需要先进的电网管理策略.
研究的目的:
- 评估储能和需求响应对中国2050年电力系统在高可再生能源透率下产生的定量影响.
- 模拟未来中国电力结构中储能和需求响应角色的动态优化.
- 分析这些灵活性选项的成本,排放和限制降低潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5数据集和每小时功率负载数据进行分析.
- 开发了一个基于小时的动态优化模型.
- 2050年中国电力结构模拟场景,可再生能源透率高.
主要成果:
- 储能 (2小时持续时间) 和需求响应 (10%容量) 可以减少6.07万亿元人民币的过渡成本,碳排放量113.8亿,每年减少2.21 PWh的电力.
- 中国2050年电力结构将由风能和光伏 (>7000千兆瓦) 主导,储能占可再生能源容量的8%-20%,并使超过250千兆瓦的热力发电厂能够退役.
- 观察到储能,需求响应,碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 和可再生能源之间的复杂替代效应,受储存时间和区域传输能力的影响.
- 储能和需求响应运营与光伏发电 (高利用率2月至5月) 保持一致,而热能和CCS在需求高峰期 (7月至9月) 补充可再生能源.
结论:
- 储能和需求响应对于具有高可再生能源透率,具有成本效益,低排放和稳定的电力系统至关重要.
- 中国未来电力结构的显著区域差异需要为储能和需求响应量身定制的整合战略.
- 这些发现为政策制定者和电网运营商在规划中国向可持续能源未来过渡的过程中提供了关键的见解.
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