非线性冲动控制和季节性对汉塔病毒感染的影响
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, PR China.
Mathematical biosciences
|January 19, 2025
概括
综合征出血性发烧 (HFRS) 是一种致命的汉氏病毒疾病在中国. 有效的控制包括减少动物种群,特别是野生小鼠,并增加疫苗接种率以制传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 由汉塔病毒引起的综合征出血热 (HFRS) 是中国的重大公共卫生问题,导致每年大量的死亡率.
- 了解汉塔病毒传播动态对于制定有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析汉塔病毒的传播动态,并为HFRS提出有效的控制措施.
- 开发和分析一个数学模型,包括用于HFRS控制的冲动干预.
主要方法:
- 一个周期性数学模型被扩展到包括房间/田间小鼠,环境污染和人类群体,并结合了冲动干预的非线性脉冲.
- 分析包括证明统一和最终的边界性,检查无病周期溶液,并计算小鼠子系统的基本繁殖数 (R01/R02).
- 分叉理论被用来研究非碎的周期解和复杂的动态,通过HFRS案例数据进行参数估计.
主要成果:
- 该模型表明,当基本生殖数超过一个 (max{R01,R02} > 1) 时,HFRS感染在人类中持续存在.
- 数字模拟表明,动物杀的强度和频率增加有效地减少了汉塔病毒的传播.
- 该研究确定了由多个周期和非线性控制脉冲产生的复杂动态.
结论:
- 减少动物种群,特别是野生小鼠,对于减轻HFRS传播至关重要.
- 在人类人口中提高疫苗接种率是减少HFRS发病率的关键策略.
- 冲动干预,如有针对性的除,可以有效地控制汉塔病毒爆发.
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