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预计局部极端降水变化的确定性越来越高
Chao Li1,2, Jieyu Liu3, Fujun Du4,5
1Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China. cli@geo.ecnu.edu.cn.
Nature communications
|January 20, 2025
概括
气候模型显示,未来极端降水的不确定性很大. 这种新方法使当地预测提高了20%以上,有助于世界上大部分地区的适应计划.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 适应规划适应规划
背景情况:
- 气候模型在预测未来极端降水变化方面表现出显著的不确定性,阻碍了有效的适应战略.
- 现有的观测约束往往不足以进行地方规模的适应计划,这需要详细的,本地化的预测.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的策略,以减少局部范围极端降水预测中的不确定性.
- 在高排放场景下提高世纪末降水变化预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 实施基于温度的新兴约束策略与数据聚合相结合.
- 结合了与全球变暖相关的极端降水变化的热力学和动态成分.
- 严格的交叉验证,以评估开发的方法的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 在高排放场景下,在全球范围内,预计每年极端每日降水变化中的错误差异减少了20%以上.
- 改进的预测适用于全球大多数地区,可能使全球90%的人口受益.
- 物理动机策略在限制局部预测方面证明了可靠性.
结论:
- 提出的基于温度的新兴约束策略显著提高了当地极端降水预测的可靠性.
- 改进的地方预测有助于更准确的影响评估和更明智的适应规划.
- 这种方法为全球各地的地方层面提供了更强大的气候变化适应战略的途径.
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