东非短雨季节性预测
Agumase Kindie Tefera1, Giovanni Liguori2,3, William Cabos4
1Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Scientific reports
|January 20, 2025
概括
预测东非短时间降雨 (10月至12月) 非常重要. 气候模型在预测降雨异常方面表现出很高的技巧,尤其是在受到厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 和印度洋双极 (IOD) 事件的影响时.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 东非短雨季 (十月至十二月) 具有很高的变化,具有重大的社会经济和环境影响.
- 准确的季节性降雨预测对于区域规划和灾害管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估东非短雨的可预测性,使用多系统季节性回顾性预测模型.
- 为了评估预测技能在不同的头时间 (1-5个月) 预测初始化在9月.
主要方法:
- 利用了哥白尼气候变化服务 (C3S) 多系统季节性回顾性预测.
- 评估了1993-2016年10月至12月降水异常的预测技能.
- 分析了厄尔尼诺南方振荡 (ENSO) 和印度洋双极 (IOD) 对降雨预测的影响.
主要成果:
- 大多数模型都表现出在东非预测OND降水异常方面的技巧,尽管平均降雨偏差.
- 北部和西部地区的预测技能减少;沿海岸和印度洋西部的预测技能增强.
- 在ENSO和/或IOD的成熟阶段,模型性能会得到改善.
- 印度洋双极 (IOD),特别是更广泛的变化,是东非降雨异常的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 季节性气候模型在预测东非短时间降雨方面表现出宝贵的技能.
- 由步行者循环变化影响的IOD变化,是了解降雨模式的关键.
- 当考虑其东极和西极时,IOD对短雨的影响最大化.
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