适应沙漠虫的分布模式,以应对全球气候变化
Xiao Chang1, Shiqian Feng1, Farman Ullah2
1State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, P.R. China.
Bulletin of entomological research
|January 21, 2025
概括
气候变化将扩大沙漠虫息地,威胁全球粮食安全. 这项研究模拟了息地变迁,确定了关键的环境因素,并预测到2090年在不同的气候情景下增加适合的地区.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 沙漠虫 (Schistocerca gregaria) 是全球主要的害虫,影响超过60个国家.
- 气候变化正在改变虫息地的适宜性,需要对农业性和粮食安全进行研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候变化对沙漠虫分布和息地适应性的影响.
- 为沙漠虫预防和控制策略提供理论基础.
主要方法:
- 最大模型与地理信息系统 (GIS) 技术相结合.
- 分析影响虫分布的关键环境变量.
主要成果:
- 适合的沙漠虫息地 (占全球陆地的19.97%) 主要位于北非和西南亚.
- 关键变量包括温度年范围,最冷季度平均温度,2月平均温度和最干燥月份降水量.
- 根据SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景,预计到2090年潜在的适合面积将增加,高度适合面积分别增加1.84%和2.77%.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将扩大沙漠虫息地.
- 了解这些转变对于全球粮食安全和害虫管理至关重要.
- 这些发现支持采取主动的虫控制策略.
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