基于Prophet模型和差异减少的IP骨干网络流量的预测和影响因素分析
1Institute of Basic Operational Technology, China Telecom Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510630, China.
Heliyon
|January 21, 2025
概括
对于通信网络来说,准确的流量预测至关重要. 使用Prophet和回归分析的新型组合模型显著提高了2.6%的省际出口交通预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 网络工程 网络工程
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 电信 电信服务 电信服务 电信服务
背景情况:
- 准确的流量预测对于通信网络规划和投资至关重要.
- 传统的统计模型在网络流量预测中比机器学习提供了可解释性和简单性的优势.
- 大规模IP骨干网络的省际出口流量需要强大的预测方法.
研究的目的:
- 分析和预测31个省份的省际出境交通.
- 为了评估传统的回归,先知和交通预测的综合模型.
- 调查宏观经济因素与IP骨干网络流量的相关性.
主要方法:
- 利用传统的回归分析和时间序列先知模型.
- 开发了一种新的组合模型,将Prophet与减差集成在一起.
- 系统地研究了八个宏观经济因素和交通数据之间的相互作用.
主要成果:
- 确定了交通与五个社会/宏观经济指数和三个沟通指数之间的显著相关性.
- 国内生产总值 (GDP),人均可支配收入,人均消费支出和互联网用户显示出高度相关性.
- 合并的Prophet和减差模型实现了94%的卓越比率,使Prophet的准确性提高了2.6%.
结论:
- 综合Prophet和减小差异的模型显示了对省际出口交通的卓越预测效率.
- 宏观经济因素,特别是GDP和收入,与网络流量有很强的相关性.
- 开发的模型对于大规模的网络规划和工程实践具有高度适用性和有效性.
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