登革热的动态,预测和未来在印度不断变化的季风气候下增加
Yacob Sophia1,2, Mathew Koll Roxy3, Raghu Murtugudde4,5
1Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, 411008, India.
Scientific reports
|January 21, 2025
概括
气候变化影响印度浦那的登革热死亡率. 机器学习模型预测由于温度和降雨量变化而导致的死亡人数增加,突出显示了早期预警系统的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球登革热负担正在增加,印度面临着相当大的份额.
- 气候变化加剧了登革热的传播,但非线性关系和数据差距阻碍了准确的预测.
- 印度浦那市是登革热点,经历季风气候模式影响疾病动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究气候变量和热死亡率之间的非线性关系,在浦那.
- 为近期和未来登革热死亡率开发一个预测模型.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来登革热死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用统计和机器学习技术分析了12年登革热死亡率和气象数据 (2004-2015年).
- 开发一个随机森林回归模型来预测登革热死亡率.
- 整合气候变化模拟 (CMIP6) 用于未来的预测.
主要成果:
- 温度,降雨量和相对湿度显著影响登革热死亡率,延迟2-5个月.
- 温和的季风降雨增加,而大雨降低登革热死亡率.
- 机器学习模型在两个月的时间内实现了r=0.77和NMSE0.52的相关性.
- 温度 (41%),降雨量 (39%) 和湿度 (20%) 是浦那登革热死亡率的关键预测因素.
- 登革热死亡率预计将增加13% (近期),23-40% (本世纪中叶) 和30-112% (本世纪末).
结论:
- 在浦那建立了重要的气候与登革热死亡率联系,使得早期预警系统成为可能.
- 开发的模型准确地预测了登革热死亡率,预期时间为两个月.
- 预计气候变化将大大增加浦那的登革热死亡率,需要适应性的公共卫生战略.
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