全球口病风险评估基于多重空间分析和生态利基模型
Qi An1,2, Yiyang Lv1,2, Yuepeng Li1,2
1College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.
The veterinary quarterly
|January 22, 2025
概括
口病 (FMD) 在全球范围内显示出显著的空间聚类. 气候,地理和社会因素影响着FMDV的适应性,大多数牲畜物种被确定为高风险地区.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 口病 (FMD) 是一种高度传染性的跨境动物疾病,具有重大的全球经济影响.
- 口病通过对牲畜和贸易限制的直接影响而造成重大损失.
研究的目的:
- 调查历史性口热流行病的空间分布模式.
- 开发一个口热病毒 (FMDV) 适合性的预测模型,并为牲畜生成风险地图.
主要方法:
- 采用了多距离空间集群分析,内核密度分析和定向分布分析.
- 开发了一种包含气候,地理和社会因素的多算法合奏模型.
- 风险地图是通过将FMDV适合性与牲畜分布数据相结合而生成的.
主要成果:
- 所有口病血清型都表现出显著的集群和定向分布模式.
- 血清型A和O在全球范围内广泛传播;亚洲1在亚洲普遍存在;SAT血清型主要存在于非洲.
- 温度,降水,风速和植被是影响口热发生的关键因素.
结论:
- 对于大多数牲畜物种而言,口热的高风险地区广泛分布在多个大陆,除了水牛.
- 确定的高风险地区包括北美和南美,欧洲,非洲,亚洲和澳大利亚.
- 结果为口热预防和控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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