从1990年到2021年,诺罗病毒相关疾病的全球负担和趋势是一项观察趋势研究
MengLan Zhu1,2, ZiLing Huang3, TongTong Liu1
1Sanitation Teaching and Research Section, Department of Health Service, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Frontiers in public health
|January 22, 2025
概括
自1990年以来,诺罗病毒相关疾病 (NAD) 的死亡率和残疾率在全球显著下降. 持续的预防工作至关重要,特别是对于儿童和老年人来说,以进一步减少这种传染性病毒的负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 诺罗病毒是全球胃肠炎爆发的主要原因,影响了各种收入环境.
- 疾病负担影响着世界各地的不同人口,需要持续的监测和控制措施.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990年至2021年诺罗病毒相关疾病 (NADs) 的全球负担和趋势.
- 为了确定关键的风险因素,并预测到2035年的NAD的未来趋势对政策的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担研究 (2021) 二次数据 (1990-2021年).
- 采用描述性统计,回归分析 (EAPC),关联点分析和贝叶斯年龄时期队列建模.
- 预测到2035年的NAD趋势,评估死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs).
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2021年,NAD的全球年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 和DALY率 (ASDR) 显著下降 (EAPC: -4.29%和 -4.40%).
- 五岁以下的儿童有不成比例地更高的ASDR,死亡风险在这个群体和老年人中达到顶峰.
- 预测表明,ASMR和ASDR在2035年期间的下降趋势将持续下降.
结论:
- 公共卫生干预,疫苗接种和卫生改善已经减少了NAD负担.
- 诺罗病毒仍然具有高度传染性,对幼儿和老年人构成风险.
- 持续的预防策略,包括疫苗接种和感染控制,对于高风险群体至关重要.
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