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基于人口的年龄-周期-队列分析人类乳头瘤病毒流行率的下降

Penelope Gray¹, Jiangrong Wang¹, Sara Nordqvist Kleppe¹

¹Center for Cervical Cancer Elimination, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet.

The Journal of infectious diseases

|January 22, 2025

概括

人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗接种在瑞典显著降低了HPV-16/18的患病率,这表明群体免疫力. 这种下降需要更新宫癌查计划,因为需要查的人数增加.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
病毒学病毒学

背景情况:

全球人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗接种计划普遍存在,据报道,HPV的流行率有所下降.
了解疫苗接种对HPV患病率的具体影响需要解开年龄,周期和出生队列效应.

研究的目的:

通过使用年龄周期队列建模,分析瑞典子宫部查计划中的HPV流行情况.
确定日历时间,出生队列和年龄对HPV流行趋势的影响.
评估HPV流行率下降对宫癌查效率的影响.

主要方法:

采用了来自瑞典首都地区23-64岁 (2014-2023) 妇女的813,882次初级HPV部查测试的数据.
采用年龄周期队列模型来估计接种疫苗的出生队列与未接种疫苗的队列之间的HPV-16/18感染几率比率.
根据HPV流行情况的变化,计算出需要查 (NNS) 的数量,以检测和预防一个宫癌病例.

主要成果:

在1999-2000年出生的女性中,HPV疫苗接种率为82%-83%.
与未接种疫苗 (1984-born) 相比,接种疫苗的出生队伍 (2000-born) 的HPV-16/18患病率显著下降,分别为HPV-16和HPV-18的患病率下降了98%和99%.
减少HPV-16/18患病率导致子宫癌检测和预防的NNS大幅增加.

结论:

观察到的HPV-16/18下降超过疫苗接种覆盖率表明群体免疫效应.
转变的HPV流行病学需要调整宫癌查策略和计划.
更新的查协议对于适应不断变化的HPV流行情况至关重要.

关键词:

在HPV中,HPV是HPV.消除HPV病毒消除HPV病毒在HPV的流行率HPV的流行率疫苗接种疫苗接种疫苗接种宫部查宫部查宫部查群体保护群体保护

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