预测气候变化情景下的农业产量变化及其对全球粮食安全的影响
Christine Li1,2, James Camac3, Andrew Robinson3,4
1School of BioSciences, Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Australia. christinel3@unimelb.edu.au.
Scientific reports
|January 22, 2025
概括
气候变化对作物产量产生重大影响,模型预计到2100年,玉米,大米,大豆和小麦将遭受重大损失. 混合效应模型提供比聚合的OLS更准确的预测,对于理解农业风险至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对农业生产率构成直接威胁.
- 统计元分析模型用于预测作物产量对气候因素的反应.
- 方法上的挑战和不确定性使得元分析的验证变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 更新作物产量对预测气候模式 (温度,降水,二氧化碳) 的反应估计.
- 在元分析中,比较混合效应模型与聚合的OLS模型的性能.
- 使用区块启动方法量化收益率预测中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 使用统计元分析,比较混合效应模型与聚合的OLS.
- 在多维不确定性量化中采用了区块启动方法.
- 结合的气候预测来自合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 和共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 排放场景.
主要成果:
- 混合效应模型在RMSE中表现出优于聚合OLS的性能,并解释了偏差.
- 聚合的OLS模型可能低估了气候驱动的产量损失.
- 在SSP5-8.5下,预计到2080-2100年产量变化范围从-22% (玉米) 到-9% (大米),在SSP1-2.6.5下显著降低.
结论:
- 混合效应模型提供了对气候变化对作物产量影响的更可靠估计.
- 在严重的排放场景 (SSP5-8.5) 下,显著的产量减少会在几个地区危及粮食安全.
- 缓解和适应战略对于在本世纪末之前避免潜在的国家卡路里赤字至关重要.
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