为季节性流感而关闭特定班级的学校:优化时间和持续时间,以防止疾病传播并尽量减少教育损失
Yukiko Masumoto1,2, Hiromi Kawasaki1, Ryota Matsuyama3
1Department of School and Public Health Nursing, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
PloS one
|January 23, 2025
概括
针对季节性流感的特定班级学校关闭最有效的是在反应性地实施时. 当5.0%的学生被感染时引发的四天关闭,为减少疾病传播提供了最佳的时间和持续时间.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 学校关闭是预防传染病的一个关键策略.
- 长期关闭会对学生和社区产生负面影响.
- 学校关闭的最佳时间和持续时间需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 评估针对特定班级的学校关闭策略,以预防季节性流感.
- 确定这些关闭的最佳时间和持续时间.
- 为了模拟流感发病率和关闭效应.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种类型特定流感发病率的随机易感-暴露-感染-移除模型.
- 在三个流感季节中,从四所高中收集了有关感染缺勤和课堂关闭的数据.
- 使用流行病数据估计的模型参数和评估关闭对累积发病率的影响.
主要成果:
- 一个为期四天的课堂关闭策略产生了最大的累计每日缺席减少.
- 较早的四天关闭时间导致累积感染的减少更大.
- 最有效的关闭策略是反应性,当大约5.0%的学生被新感染时开始.
结论:
- 对季节性流感的反应性,特定类型的学校关闭最有效,感染值为5.0%,持续时间为四天.
- 这种策略提供了良好的长期业绩,但受到随机变化的影响.
- 特定类别的关闭代表了一种微妙的方法来管理基于学校的传染病爆发.
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