重新审视流行病学中的排斥原则在一个巨大的竞争优势的极限
1Technion Israel Institute of Technology, Faculty of Mathematics, Technion City, Haifa, 3200003, Israel.
Journal of theoretical biology
|January 23, 2025
概括
竞争性排斥原则可能并不总是有效. 即使是具有高度传染性的病原体菌株,竞争菌株也可以共存,挑战已有的流行病学模型.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 竞争性排斥原则表明,在竞争时,一种病原体菌株将占主导地位.
- 权衡可以允许共存,但强大的优势通常会导致灭绝.
- 现有的文献缺乏关于在具有重大竞争优势的情况下排除原则的失效的验证.
研究的目的:
- 质疑竞争排除原则的无条件有效性.
- 为了研究病原体菌株共存,当一个菌株具有巨大的竞争优势.
- 探索在哪些条件下,尽管具有不同的传播能力,但竞争性菌株仍然存在.
主要方法:
- 流行病系统与竞争性病原体菌株的数学建模.
- 在不同的竞争优势下,对特有平衡的稳定性分析.
- 调查传染能力差异对菌株流行率的影响.
主要成果:
- 证明一种明显更易传播的菌株并不总是导致其他菌株的灭绝.
- 确定了两个竞争性菌株可以实现稳定的特有平衡的条件.
- 表明这两种菌株可以与相似的流行率并存,即使具有很大的优势.
结论:
- 竞争性排斥原则并不无条件,甚至超出了完全豁免的情况.
- 一个菌株的实质性传播优势并不排除多个菌株的稳定共存.
- 在广泛的条件下,流行病系统可以表现出持续的共感染动态,挑战传统的排除假设.
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