在加拿大2022年爆发期间干预措施对mopox传播的影响:对三个不同城市的数学建模研究
Fanyu Xiu1, Carla M Doyle1, Jorge Luis Flores Anato1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
概括
早期的麻疹疫苗接种,减少性伴侣和接触者追踪有助于控制2022年的疫情. 疫苗接种对减少mopox传播产生了最大的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 2022年全球mopox (clade II) 疫情主要影响同性恋,双性恋和其他与男性发生性关系的男性 (GBM).
- 实施了快速社区和公共卫生干预措施,以制传播.
研究的目的:
- 估计减少性行为,接触者追踪/隔离和第一剂疫苗接种对加拿大城市mopox传播的影响.
- 量化这些关键干预措施避免的MOPOX病例的比例.
主要方法:
- 利用蒙特利尔,多伦多和温哥华的参与队列研究 (n=1,445 GBM) 的数据来估计性行为的变化.
- 开发了一种传播动态模型,以评估干预措施在预防mopox感染方面的有效性.
主要成果:
- 联合干预措施避免了46% - 58%的mopox病例.
- 减少性伴侣和接触者追踪/隔离,分别预防了大约12%和14%的病例.
- 疫苗接种预防了21% - 39%的感染,由于计划的时间和覆盖范围,影响因城市而异.
结论:
- 减少性活动,接触者追踪和疫苗接种共同加速了mopox流行病的控制.
- 早期的mopox疫苗接种在控制疫情方面表现最为显著.
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