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中国流感导致的糖尿病死亡负担:基于人口的时间序列分析
Suijun Tong1, Peng Yin1, Jianhong Li1
1National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
Heliyon
|January 24, 2025
概括
在中国,高流感率显著增加了糖尿病死亡风险,每年可能导致1万多人死亡. 降低流感病毒阳性率可以防止成千上万的可预防死亡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 以前的研究表明,流感与心血管,脑血管和所有原因的死亡率之间存在联系.
- 对于患有糖尿病的老年人来说,经常建议接种流感疫苗,以减轻住院和死亡风险.
- 之前没有任何研究专门研究流感对中国糖尿病死亡率的短期影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化流感对中国糖尿病相关死亡率的影响.
- 为糖尿病患者管理提供数据驱动的指导,特别是在流感季节.
- 分析中国糖尿病人群中与流感暴露相关的短期风险.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国国家流感监测中心 (2015-2019) 和疾病监测点系统 (CDSP) 的数据来计算每周糖尿病相关死亡人数.
- 采用分布式非线性滞后模型 (DLNM) 来评估流感病毒阳性率的延迟影响.
- 计算了与流感有关的糖尿病死亡的相对风险和人口归因分数 (PAF).
主要成果:
- 分析包括260周的数据,包括256,845例糖尿病相关死亡 (平均年龄为73.36岁).
- 较高的流感病毒阳性率显示,在3周的滞后后,中国南部的相对风险为1.33,中国北部的相对风险为1.14.
- 人口可归因分数 (PAF) 估计在中国南部为9.64%,这表明每年大约有10871例可预防的糖尿病相关死亡.
结论:
- 较高的流感病毒阳性率与糖尿病相关死亡率的增加显著相关.
- 观察到流感和糖尿病死亡率之间的关联在不同地理区域和性别群体中保持一致.
- 流感在中国对与糖尿病相关的死亡率构成重大风险,这凸显了针对性公共卫生干预的必要性.
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