在30个非洲国家中,对5岁以下儿童生存率的参数建模:Lognormal加速失效时间Gamma共享脆弱模型
Bikis Liyew1, Kemal Tesfa2, Kassaye Demeke Altaye3
1Department of Emergency and Critical Care Nursing, School of Nursing, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
PloS one
|January 24, 2025
概括
在非洲,五岁以下儿童的死亡率仍然很高. 关键的生存预测因素包括母亲的教育,医疗保健的获取和社会经济因素,突出了提高儿童生存率的有针对性的干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在低收入和中等收入国家,特别是非洲,五岁以下儿童的死亡率是一个关键的公共卫生问题.
- 来自30个非洲国家的人口和健康调查的最新数据 (2014-2022) 用于分析儿童生存率.
- 该研究的重点是确定影响非洲大陆五岁以下儿童生存率和死亡率模式的因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查非洲五岁以下儿童生存概率.
- 确定非洲大陆五岁以下儿童死亡率的重要预测因素.
- 为减少儿童死亡率和提高生存率提供有针对性的干预信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自30个非洲国家的人口和健康调查数据 (226,862个活产).
- 采用多变量lognormal加速失效时间gamma共享脆弱性参数生存回归分析.
- 确定了非洲国家五岁以下儿童死亡时间的预测因素.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,五岁以下儿童的死亡率为每1000个活产婴儿中有37.55.
- 重要的预测因素包括地区 (西非和东非),孕产妇年龄 (15-19岁,20-35岁),孕产妇教育,决策自主性,女性性别,分娩地点/方式,ANC访问,出生顺序,出生时儿童大小,社区教育和财富指数.
结论:
- 在非洲,五岁以下儿童的死亡率仍然令人担忧地高.
- 母亲年龄,教育,就业,出生结果,财富,出生顺序,分娩细节,获得医疗保健 (ANC访问,决策自主),儿童大小,性别和社区教育是重要的预测因素.
- 解决这些多层次因素对于有效的干预措施来减少儿童死亡率和改善非洲的生存率至关重要.
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