在泰国三个监狱中,五种动态模型在预测结核病发病率方面的表现
Nithinan Mahawan1, Thanapoom Rattananupong2, Puchong Sri-Uam3
1School of Nursing, the Excellence Center of Community Health Promotion, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.
PloS one
|January 24, 2025
概括
在五种动态模型中,韦尔斯-莱利模型最好地预测了监狱中的肺结核 (PTB) 发病率. 这种模型是推用于大规模的结核病传播调查,因为它的简单性和有效性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 监狱环境在控制传染病传播方面带来了独特的挑战.
- 准确预测肺结核 (PTB) 发病率对于在惩戒设施中的有效公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 动态传播模型为预测这些高风险环境中的疾病传播提供了一个潜在的工具.
研究的目的:
- 评估和比较泰国监狱队列中肺结核 (PTB) 发病率的五种不同的动态模型的预测性能.
- 确定最适合的模型来评估结核病传播风险和预测校正环境中的结核病发病率.
- 评估基线结核病传播概率与未来PTB发病率之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 这是一项为期一年的前性队列研究,涉及泰国三个监狱的985个监狱细胞.
- 使用五种动态模型评估基线结核病传播风险:韦尔斯-莱利,两个鲁德尼克和米尔顿模型,伊萨罗等人和SEIR.
- 通过四步程序进行模型性能评估,包括规范测试,样本内拟合,内部验证和使用负二项回归的外部验证.
主要成果:
- 基线结核病传播概率上升1%与未来PTB发病率上升3%-7%相关,因模型而异.
- 威尔斯-莱利模型在内部和外部验证评估中表现出卓越的表现.
- 所有评估的动态模型都表现出不良的适合性,通过显著的基平方测试 (p < .001) 表明了这一点.
结论:
- 威尔斯-莱利模型是预测监狱环境中PTB发生率的最合适的动态模型,特别是在大规模研究中,因为它的最小参数要求.
- 尽管所有模型都存在适合性方面的局限性,但韦尔斯-莱利模型为监狱中的结核病风险评估提供了一种实用的方法.
- 建议进行进一步的研究和数据收集,以完善这些动态模型,以提高预测结核病在惩戒设施中的传播的准确性.
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