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碳减排场景和对中国信息和通信技术产业的潜在分析

Kaile Zhou¹, Siyi Zhang¹, Jingna Yang¹

¹School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; Data Science and Smart Social Governance Philosophy and Social Sciences Laboratory of the Ministry of Education, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China; Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Smart Management of Energy & Environment and Green & Low Carbon Development, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China.

Journal of environmental management

|January 24, 2025

概括

中国的信息和通信技术 (ICT) 产业显著影响碳排放. 主要驱动因素包括城市化和经济增长,预计到2033年将达到碳峰值,并且可以通过绿色技术投资实现碳中和.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
经济学经济学经济学
技术政策技术政策

背景情况:

信息和通信技术 (ICT) 产业对于发展至关重要,但其能源消耗和碳排放很高.
在中国实现碳中和,需要了解和减轻ICT对环境的影响.

研究的目的:

计算中国在2000-2021年期间的ICT碳排放量.
用扩展的STIRPAT模型分析影响这些排放的因素.
预测未来的排放趋势并评估实现碳中和的途径.

主要方法:

对ICT碳排放的实证分析 (2000-2021年).
通过回归对人口,财富和技术 (STIRPAT) 的扩展随机影响模型应用程序.
基于情景的预测,从2022年到2060年的排放量.

主要成果:

城市化,人力资本,经济发展和固定资产投资效率显著增加了ICT碳排放.
根据分析的情景,ICT行业的碳峰值预计将在2030-2033年之间达到.
低碳情景表明,到2060年,排放量将大幅减少,从而促进早期碳中和.

结论:

政策干预应侧重于ICT领域的绿色技术投资.
促进跨部门的互操作性对于协同减少排放的努力至关重要.
战略投资和政策可以加速ICT行业向碳中和过渡.

关键词:

碳排放碳排放碳排放碳峰值达到峰值的时间信息和通信技术产业信息和通信技术产业对情景分析进行分析.

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Global Climate Change

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