开发和内部验证用于预测儿童复发性呼吸道感染的诺米克图
Fei Xia1, Xi Zhou2, Yan Xiong2
1Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Affiliated Wuxi People's Hospital, Wuxi Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, 214023, China; Department of Pediatrics, Yixing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Yixing, 214200, China.
Respiratory medicine
|January 24, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名图,用于预测儿童的复发性呼吸道感染 (RRTI) 风险. 该工具确定了早期干预的关键风险因素.
科学领域:
- 儿科医学 儿科医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 经常性呼吸道感染 (RRTI) 对儿童的健康构成重大负担.
- 准确的风险预测对于及时干预和管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种预测性名谱,用于识别具有RRTI高风险的儿童.
- 建立一个用于个性化风险评估的图形工具.
主要方法:
- 对150名RRTI儿童和151名对照儿童 (0-14岁) 的回顾性分析.
- 拉索回归确定了预测因素:挑食,首次使用抗生素的年龄,先前使用抗生素,过敏和二手烟暴露.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准图表和DCA.评估的诺莫图表表表现.
主要成果:
- 该名录显示出优异的辨别能力,培训队列中的AUC为0.902,验证队列中的AUC为0.826.
- 证实了高的预测准确性,与良好的校准和显著的临床净益.
- 确定的主要风险因素包括饮食习惯,抗生素史,过敏症和环境暴露.
结论:
- 开发的诺米克图是预测儿童RRTI风险的有效工具.
- 为早期检测和干预策略提供个性化,图形化的方法.
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