风险和模糊性态度的适度稳定性跨越定量和定性决策
Ohad Dan1, Chelsea Y Xu2,3, Ruonan Jia2,3
1Department of Comparative Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA. ohad.dan@yale.edu.
Scientific reports
|January 24, 2025
概括
在量化和定性决策方面,人们对不确定性的态度相似. 这表明,在不同类型的选择中,对风险和模糊性的方法应该是一致的.
科学领域:
- 决策科学科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
背景情况:
- 在不确定性下的决策往往涉及可量化的结果,如货币彩票.
- 对于如何形成非可量化的结果的主观价值观的理解有限.
- 具有定性结果的医疗决策对于不确定性研究来说是一个独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查决策者在定量和定性结果领域对模糊性的态度.
- 为了确定不确定性偏好在不同类型的选择中是否一致.
- 探索对不可量化的不确定的结果的主观价值的构建.
主要方法:
- 一个在线决策任务是用二进制选择设计的.
- 参与者在保证的低结果和不确定的,可能更好的结果之间做出选择.
- 结果涉及假设的货币收益和医疗状况的改善.
主要成果:
- 不确定性态度在不同领域 (货币与医疗) 中显示了中等的相关性.
- 在每个领域内,对不确定性的态度随着时间的推移显示出适度的一致性.
- 风险偏好的个体差异影响了在定量和定性情景中的选择.
结论:
- 决策者在不同结果类型的不确定性态度中表现出一定程度的一致性.
- 这些发现表明,一种可概括的心理机制可以用于评估不确定的,无法量化的结果.
- 开发的范式适用于涉及定性结果的更广泛的决策环境.
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