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揭示未来:孟加拉国城市中心气候和腹动态的Wavelet-ARIMAX分析

Md Waliullah¹, Md Jamal Hossain², Md Raqibul Hasan¹

¹Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, 3814, Bangladesh.

BMC public health

|January 25, 2025

概括

孟加拉国的腹感染与气温上升有关. 一个新的波形-自回归集成移动平均线与外源变量 (WARIMAX) 模型准确预测腹爆发,帮助公共卫生规划.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
流行病学流行病学
时间序列分析时间序列分析

背景情况:

腹感染在孟加拉国是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,特别是在人口密的城市地区.
了解天气模式和腹爆发之间的联系对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过使用先进的时间序列模型分析气候因素来预测腹发病率.
为了比较波形-自回归集成移动平均线与外源变量 (WARIMAX) 模型与传统自回归集成移动平均线与外源变量 (ARIMAX) 模型的预测性能.

主要方法:

采用了新的波形-自回归集成移动平均线与外源变量 (WARIMAX) 模型.
用传统的自回归集成移动平均线与外源变量 (ARIMAX) 模型进行比较分析.
分析了气候变量对腹发病率的影响.

主要成果:

高温与腹发生率增加相关,突出显示天气的影响.
与MAE,RMSE和RMSLE指标验证的标准ARIMAX模型相比,Wavelet-ARIMAX模型显示出更高的预测准确度和模型适合性.
波形ARIMAX有效地识别了气候疾病相互作用中的时间变化的模式.

结论:

先进的时间序列建模,如Wavelet-ARIMAX,对于理解和预测气候健康动态至关重要.
研究结果支持气候适应性健康规划,以减轻气候变化对城市环境下腹疾病负担的影响.

关键词:

这是一个ARIMAX模型.气候因素气候因素气候与健康的相互作用腹腹腹腹腹腹腹腹腹波形-ARIMAX模型模型

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