罗马尼亚医疗保健系统的绩效指标的统计分析和预测
Cristian Ovidiu Drăgan1, Laurențiu Stelian Mihai1, Ana-Maria Camelia Popescu1
1Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Dolj, Romania.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 25, 2025
概括
本研究使用ARIMA模型预测罗马尼亚医院的医疗保健关键绩效指标 (KPIs). 结果显示,季节性影响对平均住宿时间和床位占用率产生影响,由于通货膨胀,成本上升.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 全球卫生保健系统面临着性能优化挑战,COVID-19大流行加剧了这一挑战.
- 本研究分析了罗马尼亚克拉约瓦县紧急临床医院的关键绩效指标 (KPI).
研究的目的:
- 分析和预测关键医疗保健关键指标,包括平均住院时间 (ALoS),病床占用率 (BOR),病例数 (NC),病例组合指数 (CMI) 和每次住院平均成本 (ACH).
- 为主动医院管理提供这些指标的动态和未来趋势的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用对2010年至2023年季度数据的统计分析.
- 采用ARIMA模型来预测关键关键指标,模型的选择基于Akaike和Schwarz的标准.
- 使用静止性,自相关性和异性测试验证实模型.
主要成果:
- ALoS和BOR表现出季节性,受寒冷月份的影响,预计到2025年,ALoS将稳定在五天左右,BOR在46%到52%之间.
- 病例数 (NC) 显示流行后的复苏低于流行前的水平;病例混合指数 (CMI) 预计将稳定在1.54.
- 平均每次住院费用 (ACH) 显著增长,特别是在第四季度,由通货膨胀和季节性成本驱动,预计到2025年将超过3000罗元.
结论:
- 在预测医疗保健关键关键指标方面,ARIMA模型是有效的,有助于主动资源规划和决策.
- 季节性和经济因素对医院运营产生重大影响,突显了适应性策略的必要性.
- 研究结果为提高医院效率和应对流行病后挑战提供了宝贵的见解.
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